Trump and his opponents within the Republican Party

Trump and his opponents within the Republican Party
Trump and his opponents within the Republican Party

Trump and his opponents within the Republican Party

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This weekend, a number of potential GOP 2024 presidential hopefuls met in Las Vegas to pitch to an audience of Republican supporters. All were respected personalities with impressive CVs and a wealth of government experience and achievement. And all of them supported Donald Trump when he won the presidency of the White House in 2016.
However, the mood of the meeting and the speeches of some of the candidates were very different this time, as they all stressed, in different ways, the need for the party to talk about the future, and not live on the past. Because the country wants to move forward and move beyond the endless conspiracy theories and statements that say it was Trump who won the presidential election in 2020, not Biden. In this context, the governor of New Hampshire, Chris Sununu, asked the public to stop nominating “crazy, unelectable candidates.” For his part, Maryland Governor Larry Hogan spoke about Trump’s recent electoral record, borrowing a phrase from “baseball”: “three hits and you’re out.” This is while former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie said that fearing Trump is like fearing being labeled a communist in the 1960s.
Other potential candidates such as North Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and former Vice President Mike Pence have made softer statements about Trump, but they all talk about the need to get through the 2020 election. The message was clear. Eschewing explicitly naming Trump, all of the keynote speakers have been blunt about the need to move in a new direction if the party is to have any prospect of winning the 2024 election. Based on these speeches, and those of other candidates who were not in attendance, a crack appears. Big began to appear between the leaders of the party and Trump. But do such statements and behavior have any significance?
Here are three good reasons why such statements and positions will matter, and one reason why they might fail. Or not; Trump has lost the support of some of his richest and most reliable donors, which will affect the attitudes of other smaller donors and may cause them to hesitate to make financial donations to the Trump campaign. It goes without saying that large sums of money are essential for a successful electoral campaign. secondly; Rupert Murdoch, the owner of the most powerful media empire in the world, does not like losers, and to him Trump has lost the last three elections in a row: the 2018 midterms, the 2020 presidential elections, and now the November midterms. And given that Murdoch controls Fox News, The New York Daily Post, and The Wall Street Journal, one would certainly like these media organizations to work for him rather than against him. Third; The performance of Trump’s candidates who were most present in the media during the last midterm elections, and who were among the most prominent “denyers of the election result”, was very poor, especially among young and independent voters. Without the support of more of these voters, it is difficult for any Republican candidate to beat a competent Democratic candidate.
However, Trump has one big advantage. Because as long as he has the support and admiration of his base, which is estimated to be between 25% and 30% of Republicans, he can count on their votes in any primaries to choose a Republican candidate. And if dozens of members decide to run for election, as happened in 2016, Trump can systematically divide the opposition and win the primaries with less than a clear majority of the party. And if enough of his opponents end up supporting him in the end, he can win the party’s nomination again.
Until Republicans work out the “Trump factor” and decide how to use their small majority in the House of Representatives when Congress reconvenes in the new year, it will be hard to predict what substantive legislation they might want to work with Biden and the Senate on to show they can cooperate rather than They are always “rejecting” and “denying”.
Meanwhile, Biden should consider whether he really wants to run for election again at a time when he celebrates his eightieth birthday, which would make him the oldest serving president in US history.

* Director of Strategic Programs at the National Interest Center – Washington

The article is in Arabic

Tags: Trump opponents Republican Party

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