New York (awp/afp) – The unexpected communication from the American central bank (Fed) on Wednesday, sharper than expected, propelled the dollar into a new phase, which could take it even further against other currencies.
On Thursday, the euro fell to its lowest level since October 2002 against the greenback, at 0.9809 dollars per euro. The pound sterling fell to $1.1212 for the first time since 1985.
The increase of half a point in the Bank of England’s key rate did not allow the British currency to move away frankly and it stood at 1.1253 dollars around 6:45 p.m. GMT.
“This is a more prudent decision than many expected,” said Susannah Streeter of Hargreaves Lansdown in a note.
It is not good to disappoint the market or simply raise rates less quickly than the Fed in this climate of one-upmanship.
The Bank of Norway was able to verify this, also on Thursday, after raising its key rate by half a point, to take it to its highest level since 2011.
Despite this third consecutive rise, the Norwegian krone fell against the dollar, to its lowest level in almost two and a half years.
As for the Swiss National Bank (SNB), the fact of having raised its rate by 0.75 percentage point, to 0.50%, an altitude which it had not known for more than 13 years, did not only slightly moved currency traders.
In the process, the latter pushed the Swiss franc back to its lowest level in two weeks, not far from parity with the dollar.
Melanie Debono of Pantheon Macroeconomics expects the SNB to choose to raise rates at a slower pace than the European Central Bank (ECB), to prevent its currency from appreciating too much against the euro.
Ahead of the Fed meeting, many analysts saw the dollar near its peak, but for Brad Bechtel of Jefferies, the unexpected further acceleration of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday sent it into a new phase of conquest. .
If the 0.75 percentage point rise in the Fed’s key rate was expected, the new forecasts of central bankers, who see the rate flirting with 5% next year and no drop before 2024, took aback Investors.
In addition, underlines Brad Bechtel, “we are approaching the end of the year, which is generally marked by a demand for dollars” to ensure liquidity, “which often helps it to rise”.
As for the escalation of the war in Ukraine, it also plays for the “greenback”, which remains the safe haven currency par excellence.
Faced with the king dollar, they are few currencies “to be able to resist the mounting pressure”, observes Brad Bechtel, despite the broom of rate hikes all over the world.
He cites Mexico, Brazil and Indonesia, which stand out for their high real interest rates (excluding inflation), significant natural resources and a “correct” trade balance.
Mexican pesos and Brazilian reals have thus resisted the new surge in the dollar in recent weeks.
Cours de jeudi Cours de mercredi 18H45 GMT 21H00 GMT EUR/USD 0,9834 0,9837 EUR/JPY 140,03 141,72 EUR/CHF 0,9623 0,9507 EUR/GBP 0,8737 0,8729 USD/JPY 142,40 144,06 USD/CHF 0,9787 0,9665 GBP/USD 1,1252 1,1270