The fall in fuel and gas eases the pressure on inflation before the summer

The fall in fuel and gas eases the pressure on inflation before the summer
The fall in fuel and gas eases the pressure on inflation before the summer

Nothing is defined in the complex energy sector that has caused so much trouble for European economies, companies and families in the last year. But the most recent data confirm the relief that businesses and households currently have both when filling the deposit and when facing the electricity billat least if the current costs are compared with those that they came to assume in the summer of last year, setting record after consecutive record.

fuels and natural gas their prices continue to fall as spring progresses and a few weeks before summer begins. With the latest data, they anticipate a moderation of the headline rate of inflationwhich closed April at 4.1%, although the core (not including energy or unprocessed food) continues to shoot up at 6.6%.

In the case of diesel and gasolinehave fallen to new lows so far this year, below levels before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, at the end of February 2022. Specifically, the average price of diesel has fallen this week by 0.14% compared to seven days agoto delve into a new low this year and fall to its lowest level from the end of January 2022.

According to data from the European Union Oil Bulletin, the average price of a liter of diesel is located, after ten weeks of falls, in the 1.40 euro, also consolidating at a lower level than what it cost in the last week of 2022, when the Government subsidy of 20 cents per liter was still applied. For his part, the gasoline has chained this week his fifth consecutive fall and, with a decrease of almost 0.2%, it stands in the 1.57 euroits lowest level since February 2022.

The market has also returned to normal in the sense that diesel is cheaper than gasoline. Because during the last months of 2022, diesel cost more, despite being more subsidized by the Hydrocarbons Tax than gasoline itself. Not with those. Refueling with diesel was no longer affordable for millions of drivers with vehicles that used that fuel to get around.

Now, diesel is already consolidating for the fifteenth week in a row below the price of gasoline. It stays that way in usual situation before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Both fuels also follow below the amount they marked (1,818 euros in the case of the first and 1,837 euros for the second) before the entry into force of the aid of 20 cents per liter that the Government approved at the end of March of last year, and that, since the beginning of 2023, only It is maintained for the group of professionals, which includes carriers, farmers, shipping companies and fishermen.

Far from the gas record

In parallel and almost in unison, the natural gas pricewhich caused so much trouble last year throughout Europe, is already heading towards levels such as that of the €15/MWh. That is the price level forecast by the energy consultancy Tempos, where they explain that the high level of European gas reserves could be at 100% capacity “much earlier than expected” by each country. This Thursday the TTF gas index (the Dutch one, the most traded in Europe) stood at 26 euros/MWh, the level it had long before the Russian war began, around October 2021. Last year it exceeded 300 euros in August.

The consultant considers that the “loose amounts” of gas inventorieswhich are 50% higher than the average of a decade and almost 60% higher than last year, will relax the demand for this fuel.

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