The blue dollar has been showing a certain calm in recent days. In fact, this Wednesday it quoted $286 for the purchase and $290 for the sale, however, from the Bullmarket Broker Research team, they point out that one piece of information that needs to be focused on is that “after almost a year, that exchange rate won again against the MEP.” And it is that, today, between both exchange rates there is almost $8 difference. But, from the brokerage house, they maintain that, “in theory, they should be arbitrated by the purée, which is the operation that arises from the sale of the dollar acquired in the official circuit at the blue price.” How to read this trend and what will happen?
Analysts point out that it must be taken into account that, These days, the cost of swapping bonds against the cable dollar (the Cash With Liquidation) is low and that implies that there is an entry of dollars from abroad by companies while the cost of leveraging on the stock market (MEP) to bet against the official dollar has more than doubled in recent times due to an increase in operating costs , which causes the MEP to remain low. That is why you are seeing a CCL that trades with a strong difference from the MEP. In fact, the former traded around $311 this Wednesday while the latter was about $26 lower, at $284.5.
Thus, in BullMarket they point out that “this anomaly (referring to the price difference in favor of blue against the MEP) has been maintained over time” and they explain that this is an indication of the strong use of blue by importers.
The obstacles to importers put pressure on the blue
How is this? Happens that the informal one is a dollar that allows them to be dollarized without preventing them from resorting to the Single Free Exchange Market (MULC). “Since they leave the system in pesos and return to it in pesos, there are no regulatory impediments with the banks or the risk that they will issue Suspicious Transaction Reports (STRs) warning of any irregularity“, they explain in BullMarket.
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Let us remember that several months ago importers have been forced to obtain financing for 180 days outside the foreign exchange market and that forces them to look for some protection for your assets against devaluation and inflation. In this framework, many go towards alternative dollars, including the blue. They clarify, however, that this is not an option chosen by large companies, but is mainly done by SME importers, who seek to protect their pesos to face the payment of input purchases.
Calm of the blue: the lack of liquidation of the field, a risk for the future
And, finally, they point out that the fact that the field is practically not selling soybeans is another element that is keeping blue and also the MEP calm. “It happens that this means that pesos are not yet used to buy the MEP or blue dollar, which is relevant because, surely, when the exporter liquidates what he has saved, we will have liquidity for the financial dollars,” they say in BullMarket.
Analysts warn that weak grain sales are keeping alternative dollars calm.
This is because the gap between the official dollar and the financial ones these days is around 100%, it is on high ground and that implies less incentive for exporters to liquidate. Likewise, the measures taken by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) to promote the liquidation of soybeans by agriculture, the 70/30 program, known as the soybean dollar, were not very attractive for the sector, which awaits new announcements these days by the government.
Thus, if this is confirmed, and the Government achieves its objective of boosting foreign currency income from exports as it intends, BullMarket warns that “a paradox would arise, because, although, on the one hand, the BCRA could add reserves, on the the other could be given a rise in financial dollars because those pesos that they give to the producers will be turned towards the blue or the MEP”.