Inflation at such high levels, the increase in interest rates paid by placements in pesos and a free dollar which was stabilized in the last month, lead savers to calculate what are the best investment alternatives to protect surplus pesos.
To find out what were the most profitable instruments in the first 8 months of 2022, and also from the beginning of 2021 to the present, iProfesional compared the profit granted in those periods by them, for an investment of an initial amount of $100,000.
Thus, it was analyzed income obtained from the purchase of the different dollars (solidarity, MEP and blue), the placement in fixed term and the acquisition of shares and Bitcoin.
As for the dollar, the exchange rate increasingly restricts access to the official market, where those people who signed up for energy subsidies could be disaffected from this possibility of becoming the maximum limit of the $200 a month, a figure that at the “solidarity” value is equivalent to about $48,000at a retail price plus taxes that lead to the dollar in banks and exchange houses at a price of $240.
A value that is at least about $50 below the value of the blue, the Stock Exchange (MEP) and the cash with liquidationwhich are at a low of $290.
At the same time, taking into account fixed terms in pesos traditional at 30 days, and the UVA, which are at 90 days and adjusted for inflation. The Merval index of shares of leading companies listed on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange was also analyzed, which closed August with an increase of 11% and in all of 2022 advances 60%. Finally, Bitcoin was taken into account, which fell 14% in the month that just ended.
The Merval index of leading stocks is the biggest gainer investment in all of 2022, and it was the only one to outperform inflation.
Savings: shares rebound in the year
The great rebound in the prices of the leading stocks between july and augustled to them becoming the most attractive investment of the entire year, by exceeding the inflation registered in the same period.
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Then, Last January, the saver allocated that $100,000 from the example in the Merval index, in the first 8 months of the year he earned a total of $162,000. In short, he made an extra $62,000 in that time..
“During August continued to rise the price of stock assets replicating, although with less intensity, the rises registered last July. With almost a 60% appreciation in just the last two months, the Merval is the only investment of the chosen menu that exceeds in the accumulated of 2022 the growth of the prices of a basket of goods and services measured by the National CPI”, details to iProfessional Andres Mendezdirector of AMF Economy.
Therefore, this analyst delimits that that investor who placed $100,000 last January, today should account for an amount close to $155,000 to maintain their purchasing power due to high inflation.
Then, below the price level of the economy, the fixed term UVA, with an accumulated amount throughout 2022 of $149,000 and the dollar bluewith $143,560.
“In the antipodes, those who opted for the Bitcoin at the beginning of 2022, they have lost almost 40% of the invested nominal funds in pesos. This rises to 60% if the loss of purchasing power of the invested capital is considered if it is related to inflation,” says Méndez.
To take into account the saver who at the beginning of the year placed $100 thousand, in August it turned out to be the best investment to buy Merval shares.
In August, shares and fixed term UVA
On the side of the saver who invested last January $100 thousand in the leading shares of the Merval indexthe profits obtained last August were very attractive, since only in that month he earned $16,000.
The fixed term UVA was the second option that stood out last monthwhere he generated $9,200 with the aforementioned initial money placed in early 2022.
“After the brilliant performance of last July, the various definitions of dollars did not ‘shine’ in Augustalthough a better positioning of the solidarity dollar is noted, given that the Central Bank accelerated the rate of nominal adjustment, although still below the National CPI”, summarizes Méndez to iProfesional.
What are the outstanding investments since the beginning of 2021
Now, when balancing the saver who invested $100,000 at the beginning of 2021, the results show that only the bet on the Merval exceeded the inflation registered in the last 20 months, by accumulating $273,300 in that period.
“The results do not differ significantly from what was recorded in the first eight months of 2022: Except for the Merval, the other alternatives are surpassed by the rise in the IPC, with a singularly critical performance for Bitcoin”, mentions Méndez.
Likewise, among the other proposals that yielded more from January 2021 to the present, but that still offered a rent below the prices of the economy, the UVA fixed term ($228,000) and cash with liquidation, with a total of $207,000 accumulated.
From the beginning of 2021 until now, Merval shares were the big winners. The one who put in $100,000 20 months ago already has $273,300.
In this context, the traditional fixed term outperformed certain options as an investment alternative, like the blue dollar, the savings dollar and Bitcoin, but it still accumulates a loss of purchasing power with respect to inflation, which in the last 20 months reaches 17%.
“This loss of fixed terms is indicative of the monetary strategy followed by the Central Bank, which tended to promote consumption over savings. For this reason, those who kept their pesos in one of these 30-day placements, renewing them with the interest obtained successively, during these last two years, at the end of August only acquired 83% of the amount of goods and services to which they accessed at the beginning of 2021″, summarizes Méndez.
what to expect in september
Regarding the expectations for investments in the last months of the year, it should be remembered that the Economists’ projections focus on a decline in economic activitya fact that could alter the results observed to date.
Therefore, without having registered an upward correction of the different types of dollars like the one observed since mid-June, “Stock market assets measured in pesos would not enjoy sufficient arguments to sustain the expansive process of their prices”, Mendez says.
As a result, for this analyst they could reach be “more attractive” fixed terms, a fact that began to be observed in August with those who adjust for UVA, due to the overheating of inflation. While the traditional ones “could do it from October”.
Meanwhile, the big question experts are asking is what will happen to the dollar. “In this regard, consideration should be given to the potential of the savings dollar, which could recover the ground lost in these 20 months and, in particular, during 2022″, concludes Méndez.