Stock market: is the worst yet to come?

Stock market: is the worst yet to come?
Stock market: is the worst yet to come?

Posted Sep 22, 2022, 5:00 PM

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Turmoil in the financial markets. The stock market recorded one of its most serious crises in more than ten years. After prancing in 2021, with in particular a historic record for the CAC 40 which rose to nearly 7,400 points, the fall in world stock markets came in the wake of the war in Ukraine, without it being the only cause. In a few weeks, the Paris Bourse fell and has since varied between 5,700 and 6,700 points. No better across the Atlantic where the S&P 500, Wall Street’s flagship index, has lost more than 20% since the start of 2022.

The year is already very bad for investors. The first tremors appeared at the end of 2021 in the United States with the start of a series of rate hikes. After a decade close to zero, even negative rates, which boosted stock market valuations, the shock was severe. The markets began a descent then accentuated by the geopolitical situation, by the real estate crisis coupled with a zero Covid policy in China, then the break in the post-pandemic supply chains, and finally the energy crisis. An unexpected accumulation of traditionally depressing facts for the markets.

Crash or no crash

Among the stocks that suffered the most are those of Tech. The fall in their valuation had a direct impact on individuals, who favored them, and when they had returned to France in the stock market game after a decade of disaffection. There is a risk of seeing world stock markets sink a little further in October. Some even fear reaching a breaking point when, since 1929, this month of the year is the one associated with the stock market crash. The situation is special, with an inflationary risk to which the central banks’ rate hikes respond. A monetary policy that makes investors pessimistic.

La Story is a podcast from Les Echos presented by Pierrick Fay. This episode was recorded in September 2022. Editor-in-chief: Clémence Lemaistre. Guests: Christian Parisot (economic advisor to Aurel BGC) and Bastien Bouchaud (journalist in the Markets department of “Echos”). Directed by: Willy Ganne. Production and publishing manager: Michèle Warnet. Music: Théo Boulenger. Graphic identity: Upian. Photo: Richard Drew/AP/SIPA. Sounds: Francis Cabrel “October” (1995), La Story, TF1, Topito, Bob Decout “Do not soften” (1981), Djadja & Dinaz “Max Profit”, Kass “Pessimist”.

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