The thesis of “sabotage” is highly favored to explain the spectacular leaks of the Nord Stream I and II gas pipelines, an operation certainly complex but by no means beyond the reach of a competent army. And there are plenty of them in the area.
The hypothesis of simultaneous accidental failures seemed ruled out on Wednesday. But the method used remains unknown as the presumed author, object of multiple conjectures.
The three leaks identified since Monday are located in the Baltic Sea, off the Danish island of Bornholm, between southern Sweden and Poland. A highly guarded area for decades.
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“In the past, the USSR based spy submarines with special engineering capabilities on the seabed,” independent naval analyst HI Sutton recalls on Twitter.
Since then, the Baltic countries have joined NATO. But the leaks occurred in international territorial waters where everyone can circulate.
“Today, the Russian Navy has the largest fleet of spy submarines in the world. They are based in the Arctic. They would be able to degrade a pipeline in the Baltic”, assures HI Sutton. But he also judged Tuesday the hypothesis “improbable”.
>> The analysis in Forum by Frédéric Potelle, director of research at Banque Bordier & Cie:
A complex sabotage
The operation requires intervention at a depth of 70 meters. “It’s heavy. Damaging two gas pipelines at the bottom of the sea is an important event, so a state actor is likely”, notes Lion Hirth, professor at the Hertie School in Berlin, implicitly dismissing the terrorist or villainous act.
But a competent army knows how to do it. The area is “perfectly suited to midget submarines,” a senior French military official told AFP, citing either the option of combat swimmers sent to lay charges, or that of a mobile mine or drone. submarine.
Damaging two gas pipelines at the bottom of the sea is a significant event, so a state actor is likely”
“The drone starts from a submarine which can stay several nautical miles from the target point. It drops its drone-mine, which sails at around ten knots, near the bottom”, he explains. “The target is fixed so it’s not very complicated.”
On the other hand, the torpedo hypothesis, useful rather for a moving target, is according to him less plausible.
The explosion “corresponds to several hundred kilos of TNT equivalent”, he specifies. The Norwegian seismological institute NORSAR, which specializes in detecting earthquakes and nuclear explosions, estimated the second detonation at 700 kilos.
Unclaimed operation
The chancelleries point the finger at Moscow which, itself, does not exclude “any hypothesis” and recalls that the gas which escapes from the gas pipelines belongs to it.
“The Baltic Sea is confined and shallow and almost every movement is tracked and observed by the coastal states and their ships,” notes Julian Pawlak, of Helmut Schmidt University in Hamburg. “Ships and submarines are capable of deploying covert combat divers there” and other remotely guided underwater vehicles.
Nothing is impossible for an army experienced in the art of clandestine operations.
“It’s called a naval special operation. It’s not easy but it’s done,” summarizes the French military Source. “It looks like something well-coordinated and well-prepared.” It may take time for the truth to credibly emerge. Some analysts observe in this respect that vagueness benefits many players.
But then who?
“It remains to be seen who is responsible for the operation,” adds this military Source. “Other countries have an interest in the pipe never being able to work again.”
In fact, the opponents of Nord Stream 2 have been numerous for years, the United States in the lead. On February 7, shortly before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, US President Joe Biden raised the possibility of “ending” it.
Asked about the method used for an infrastructure under the control of his German ally, he replied: “I promise you, we will be able to do it”. The video has been circulating widely for 24 hours on social networks.
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On Tuesday, moreover, Poland, Norway and Denmark inaugurated a strategic gas pipeline which will allow Poles and Europeans to be less dependent on deliveries from Moscow. “The era of Russian gas dominance is coming to an end,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said at his inauguration.
European energy fragility
Two certainties at this stage: first, the event is linked to the war in Ukraine. “NATO maritime command and allied ships are considering and preparing for hybrid activities, including the sabotage of critical infrastructure, on the sidelines of the main objective of collective defense”, assures Julian Pawlak.
Second, it creates additional instability in the European economy. “It’s a stark reminder of the vulnerability of our energy infrastructure,” said Lion Hirth.
He favors the Russian track. “If that’s true, that’s quite worrying. At the very least, it means that Russia… is sending the clearest possible signal that it won’t deliver any more gas in the near future.”
Whoever they are, those who attacked Nord Stream also make it clear that they could strike at other energy infrastructures serving a Europe thirsty for gas and oil.
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